Everybody put your big boy pants on, because the NFL draft is coming and it is going to hit like a 22 year old man-boy who's 260 and runs the 40 in 4.3. It's going to come so fast that it'll run you over, take you about five seconds to register the pain, and as you're looking up at the sky going, "what the fuck just happened?" you'll realize it's only the beginning, and the rest of the dog pile is about to form over your already limp frame.
This is in no way a guide to surviving the draft, nor is this even a set of statements or predictions of who is going to be the prize of this draft class, because I'm going to let you in on a dirty little secret: there is no way of knowing, period.
Just read a great article on espn.com about the Ryan Leaf vs. Peyton Manning debate that raged back in 1998. We all know how that one turned out, and if you don't, all you have to do is this: realize that you can't turn on a TV on a Sunday in the fall without seeing Peyton's boyish backwoods grin and that you're also asking yourself, "Who the hell is Ryan Leaf?" Exactly.
Scouting reports, breakdowns, statistical analysis - all of these are great things and can be used for bold predictions, but nothing will tell you the future. Of the 30 first round picks in the class of '98, 15 are retired or unsigned, 2 are in the CFL, and a few more are still twiddling their thumbs in free agency. The numbers aren't great, neither is the ridiculous amount of money thrown at these guys who haven't played a single game in the pros. But this ain't moneyball, this is draft day, and any combo of a team with deep pockets and a young stud with a flashy smile can give a fanbase hope until the grim reality of Autumn sets in once again.
I go back to the quote, "Paying for superstars doesn't kill you, paying for mediocrity does." There is no way to predict at the draft who is going to be a superstar, but you can sure as hell tell if a guy isn't going to pan out. Yeah yeah yeah, everyone will throw Tom Brady and him being drafter in the 119th round as proof that you can never tell how it's going to go, but I think he solidifies rather than hurts my point - New England had a good feeling about this guy, but they weren't going to go overboard on him. Not everyone is going to pan out, all of the other picks the Patriots had in that draft have now left football, or if they're still playing, are third stringers or practice squad guys.
ESPN.com also ran the top 50 busts of the NFL draft, and all i could think was, "only 50?? Where is every guy the Giants drafted except Eli Manning since 1991??" The Giants drafted a dude with a detached retina, WHEN THEY DRAFTED HIM, and he never even suited up. Maurice Clarrett sat out for two seasons and was drafted in the last round by the Broncos...you're telling me your scouting reports said it was better to take someone who had potential TWO YEARS AGO rather than an active runner? You deserve what you get Denver.
See the outrage? This is what I'm talking about. So when your team drafts with big hopes and throws an insane signing bonus at some guy who'd still rather be at a kegger (Matt Leinart) than carrying his team to a national championship (Manning, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brady), just grin and bear those 5 dollar hikes in ticket prices, and comfort yourself with the fact that the NFL Draft is a lot like the presidential election - a lot of speculation, way too much hype, and in the end, the wrong guy is always the one picked.
-Jobimoto out
"With the 1st pick of the NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...it doesn't matter. They're still gonna suck."
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