Ok, admittedly, it is a little late in the season to be starting this, but I feel it is my duty to put my weekly picks against the line out there to the world to prove just how much Vegas knows over the average football nutter. I would be seriously in the red so far because Vegas may not know football, but it knows how to Win, and in Vegas, the house always Wins.
There are is only one real rule I have about making picks though - I will never comment on the Giants games, because it is a lock that I will always be erring on the side of my beloved Boys in Blue. Betting against the team you love is a Gambler's move, and putting your money where your heart is has always been a Sucker's move, and as I like to think of myself as neither of these things, I will abstain from commenting on the game, because that will only bring negativity to my team - just assume I always pick them to win. So with the home team in bold and without further ado:
New Orleans (-7) over Oakland - Teams traveling from west to the east, or even to the central time zone, on a 1 oclock start, go through hell. On top of that, Oakland sucks, and even if they've been working on a variation of the Wildcat Offense that is carrying Miami and made McFadden the commodity he is, there is no hope. I think you could give them 9 and I'd still take N.O.
Indianapolis (-4) over Baltimore - This is one of those games that I think the oddsmakers know what they're doing. Indianapolis could very well be at 0-4 right now, but they have prayed to the Football Gods, made sacrifices and are standing at a very shaky 2-2. But Baltimore has not come up big when needed, and I think Peyton and company are ready to get back on track. And Vegas would be ready to take my money.
Bengals (+10) over Jets - Palmer's out, but still look for Cincy to cover the spread. They hung in against Dallas and if it hadn't been for poor play calling/clock management, they could have gotten their first win of the season. Of course, what do I know? I picked the Browns to be the monsters of the North.
Carolina (+2) over Bucs - The Bucs have been underwhelming at best, and I think the Panthers have too many weapons to not pull this one out.
Minnesota (-13.5) over Detroit - No point spread is large enough. Detroit has looked like a bunch of overwhelmed tortoises released from the zoo into a large pot of terrapin soup. Woe be any defender that gets in the way of Adrian Peterson - he will be picking turf out of the crevices of his helmet.
Atlanta (+3) over Chicago - I'm not sure I heard the question, but Kyle Orton is not the answer. He has held out long enough without making himself look like a bumbling idiot, but smoke and mirrors only go so far. Turner is going to switch on the afterburners and torch the Bears.
Miami (+3) over Houston - Houston should not be 0-4. Additionally, the Dolphins should not be 2-2. No one has figured out the Wildcat, and while it's not the case that no one ever will, it won't be the Texans.
Washington (-12) over St. Louis - See my evaluation on Minnesota/Detroit. Why am I contemplating playing Steven Jackson today?? Stupidity. I ultimately have decided to sit him, watch him blow up for 3.
Jaguars (+3.5) over Broncos - Everything in my gut is telling me to pick the Broncos - at home, team coming from the east, killer offense - but I just don't think they're going to get it done. They have no defense and they have been exposed. That loss to K.C. not only wounded their pride, but any other team that plays them has to smell that delicious mix of blood and failure.
San Francisco (+4.5) over Philly - Without Westbrook, the Eagles are a different team, and even with him last week, they are less than thrilling. Mix in the travel, and I'm taking the 9ers and the points.
Dallas (-4.5) over Zona - This week's Sexy pick is the Cardinals to upset the Cowboys. However, like so many before them, the Cards will come close but will not get the cigar. High scoring game, and my boy Tim Hightower is going to rack up some points, and will be one of those rare 18th round picks I won't get to keep for next year.
Seattle (-1) over Green Bay - The Pack seem to be a giant punching bag these days, and I don't think they're pulling it together against the Seahawks. Julius Jones is going to run all over them like he historically has - or at least he better or my fantasy team is screwed and I'll be wishing I put in Jackson. Or Grant.
*Sidebar* How do I have four talented Running Backs in Jackson, Ryan Grant, Jones, and Hightower, and I only play them when they DON'T score? It's killing me. I could be 4-1 right now, instead I'm 1-3-1. Horrid.
San Diego (-5) over New England - There won't be a winner, but there will be a loser in this. Look for New England to play worse than the Chargers. This is also another example of Vegas being smart and setting a line that seems reasonable and idiots like me will take the favorite when really they should take the points. I'll figure this game out by the end of the season...
Plus the game that shall not be mentioned. There will have to be a great line or a great argument for me to actually comment on it.
Coming soon - the weekly recap, and once I get to work and find my sheet, my yearly record.
-Jobimoto out.
We're going for 2!
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1 comment:
Hey, great site and keep up the good work.
And here is two reasons why Vegas does what it does:
10-percent juice - Imagine having to pay a 10-percent sales tax. Wouldn't do it, right? Might starve or at least go shirtless more than just on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Well, Vegas charges a 10-percent (at least) juice so they don't have to "win", they just have to come close to 50-50 action.
Hubris - Too many people think they know better than the books. If a line looks fishy or too good to be true, then something is up and you have to go against your own instincts. Not too many have the discipline to do that.
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