Victory on New Year's Day

Major congratulations are in order for Blogi - this was a long time coming and very very sweet on a number of levels. I was glad that it went down the way it did, though I didn't watch much of the game. I did, however, see the second touchdown drive that he mentioned and it was awesome. It was at that point that USC took control of the game and said, "Mine," the way a greedy child does. Then it sounds like USC's parents forced them to share in the second half...no matter, they still took their ball and went home.

For week 17, I finished 7-5-4...what a weird line. The spread saved me and killed me in a lot of scenarios, obviously with so many ties. This week I was all gung-ho to make my picks, and then I decided to do something I rarely do - see how Bill Simmons picked. I also followed his rules for making picks, and some of them seem spot on, and others, well, I'm going to have to bet against...this will be an interesting weekend. For one of the first times ever all four road teams are favored this weekend. Some of them will lose, but not all of them. This is going to be just as nutty as the regular season down the stretch was...

Atlanta (-2) over Arizona - I read everything Bill had to say on this, and I should be agreeing with him. Atlanta has been mediocre on the road, has a rookie QB, an organization that was doomed to failure last year, and Arizona has Kurt Warner, two of the best receivers in the league, and are at home. So why am I not picking Arizona? They have no defense, no running game, stumbled into the playoffs by being in a horrible division and haven't won a playoff game since god only know when, and I don't feel like looking it up. Turner's numbers are less impressive on the road, but they're still playing in a dome, don't run that complicated of an offense that the crowd will disrupt (ALSO, Arizona hasn't even sold out the game and needed blackout restriction extension). And do you want, "Nobody Believed in Us" syndrome? Atlanta, please. However, as I write this, I think I may in fact be convincing myself. I think this comes down to running the ball, and Arizona can't. Hightower is a goal line stud, nothing more.

Indianapolis (-1) over San Diego - The Chargers have become the sexy pick recently, but you have to look at them, and you have to look at Indy. LDT and Gates are both on the sideline, the same thing that happened last year when they got beat by the Pats. They were anemic most of the year, they have Phillip effing Rivers at QB, and Norv Turner as their head coach. Indy has a proven history of winning, Peyton Manning at QB, Tony Dungy as head coach, and a great cast of supporting characters who have apparently gotten healthy. Oh, and they've won 9 straight, against good teams. The Chargers had the luxury of playing in the AFC West (AFC Mess?) and haven't beaten anyone of substance all year. AND THEY ARE 8-8! Too much public opinion has swayed to the Chargers because Indy struggles when playing San Diego on their turf...you know what? I think that's gonna change this post-season...

Baltimore (-3.5) over Miami - Miami is the feel good story of the year, and I really want to pick them, but I think Baltimore will pick them apart, despite the worries of Joe Flacco turning the game over as a rookie QB. Baltimore's D allows them to hang with anybody, and I do mean anybody. As Simmons pointed out, their five losses came to Pittsburgh, the Giants, Tennessee, and Indy - all respectable, all better teams than Miami. I think they can wrap this one up easily and cover, especially if they go smart and wind down that clock. Will the wildcat give them problems? Potentially, but this is a stellar defense, and they've been waiting for this...

Minnesota (+3) over Philadelphia - Ok, I admit, Simmons convinced me on this one. I had the Eagles coming in being the Giants of '08...then I thought about it and realized Andy Reid is head coach. This is going to turn into an epic battle of a game only because of the number of mistakes that are going to be made. I think Minnesota can effectively be shut down by the Eagle's D, but I think unless Westbrook is able to break free consistently, you can't put the game on the shoulders of McNabb. Peterson will have a good day, home field advantage will work out for the Vikings, and I would much rather see them advance than the Eagles that can change a game on any given Sunday. There's a good chance they can win, but I'll put my pick with the Vikings.

-Jobimoto out.
"Playoffs...playoffs??"